Weekly Update, 7 January 2011
January 7, 2011 Leave a comment
Over the course of 2010 levels of violence fluctuated from week to week in Iraq. The overall number of attacks declined over the past two months but conditions could still worsen and in reality things were no better in 2010 than they were in 2009.
Over the course of the year Baghdad was the most hostile part of the country, followed by Mosul. The south was relatively quiet, which bodes well for all the foreign companies looking to invest there, although there’s still a risk of attacks around the region.
In more recent trends, the Iraqi authorities have been put on a state of high alert following a spike in targeted assassinations involving guns with silencers in Baghdad. This increase has been quite substantial and the majority of victims have been state employees, such as ministry workers and senior figures in the police and intelligence services.
In December we noted a decrease in the number of sticky bombs being used by militants. However, the number has started to creep up once again with several sticky bombs being reported around the centre of the country last week. You are advised to be careful when you’re out and about in vehicles, particularly if your car is stuck in traffic. Try not to leave vehicles parked unattended and be sure to check the underside of your car for suspicious items before you get inside.
The anti-US cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has also returned to Iraq. It is expected that he will return to Iran at some stage to complete his religious studies, or he could undermine his own credibility as a pious cleric, therefore compromising his own political influence.
At the moment, he has called for calm amongst his supporters, which is reassuring from a security perspective and an indication that he has shifted to a more conciliatory role in Iraqi politics, quite different from the firebrand anti-US reputation he held in 2007 and the earlier years. However, he is still adamant that the US military has to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011 and if they don’t, he still has a lot of supporters that he can call upon to rise up and conduct destabilising attacks. He is expected to make a statement tomorrow, Saturday the 8th of January 2011. This may give more of an indication of his intents over the coming year.
