Weekly Update, 7 January 2011

Over the course of 2010 levels of violence fluctuated from week to week in Iraq. The overall number of attacks declined over the past two months but conditions could still worsen and in reality things were no better in 2010 than they were in 2009.

Over the course of the year Baghdad was the most hostile part of the country, followed by Mosul. The south was relatively quiet, which bodes well for all the foreign companies looking to invest there, although there’s still a risk of attacks around the region.

In more recent trends, the Iraqi authorities have been put on a state of high alert following a spike in targeted assassinations involving guns with silencers in Baghdad. This increase has been quite substantial and the majority of victims have been state employees, such as ministry workers and senior figures in the police and intelligence services.

In December we noted a decrease in the number of sticky bombs being used by militants. However, the number has started to creep up once again with several sticky bombs being reported around the centre of the country last week. You are advised to be careful when you’re out and about in vehicles, particularly if your car is stuck in traffic. Try not to leave vehicles parked unattended and be sure to check the underside of your car for suspicious items before you get inside.

The anti-US cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has also returned to Iraq. It is expected that he will return to Iran at some stage to complete his religious studies, or he could undermine his own credibility as a pious cleric, therefore compromising his own political influence.

At the moment, he has called for calm amongst his supporters, which is reassuring from a security perspective and an indication that he has shifted to a more conciliatory role in Iraqi politics, quite different from the firebrand anti-US reputation he held in 2007 and the earlier years. However, he is still adamant that the US military has to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011 and if they don’t, he still has a lot of supporters that he can call upon to rise up and conduct destabilising attacks. He is expected to make a statement tomorrow, Saturday the 8th of January 2011. This may give more of an indication of his intents over the coming year.

Eight Months since the Election

Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week. At least 98 people were killed and 484 injured in nationwide violence, which lies above the usual fatality range of 20 – 90.

Up to 60 separate bomb attacks left 81 people dead and 456 injured. Many took place in Shi’ah locations, with attacks recorded in all four of the major Shi’ah holy areas (including Kadhimiyah, Karbala, Najaf and Samarra) over the past week.

Small arms attacks left six people dead and six injured while a notable rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) also left five people dead and 22 injured.

The International/Green Zone was the primary target, although mortars landed in other nearby districts of downtown Baghdad (most probably because of poor targeting), while US military bases were also targeted with the tactic elsewhere in the central provinces.

The Christian community, particularly in Baghdad, is still reeling from an attack on a Chaldean church in Karradah district, and with al-Qaeda warnings against the group many are considering leaving the country.

The media sector is also concerned at the closure of Al-Baghdadiya television station by the authorities amid an investigation into their links to the attack. The bombers called the station to relay their demands and it has now been labelled a “mouthpiece for terrorists”.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has also criticised the findings of an inquiry by the Kurdish regional government which concluded that a freelance journalist was killed by insurgents. Sardasht Othman often censured the Kurdish authorities and his death highlighted allegations of governmental abuse of the media. HRW believe the inquiry is insufficient and could be a cover up.

Overall the capital saw the majority of the violence last week, but there was also an increase in the number of attacks taking place in the central provinces and Ta’mim province in the north.

In an unusual and worrying development there was one suicide attack reported over the week – not in the more hostile central provinces, but on the edge of Arbil city in Iraqi Kurdistan. Fortunately the professional Kurdish security forces were able to kill the bomber before he detonated his vehicle laden with explosives but the incident highlights the fact that even normally secure KRG territory is not entirely immune from terrorism.

At the time of writing Arbil is in the news for another major reason. Senior Iraqi politicians have gathered in the city to discuss the protracted government-formation process. Speculation is that a major announcement is to be made in the coming hours and days. It has now been over eight months since elections were held in the country.

If a government is formed armed supporters of political parties deemed to have lost out in the process may initiate attacks on their political rivals and attempt to destabilise what will likely be a weak coalition government.

Note that cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military will remain a possibility in the Qandil Mountains or KRG territory, although the PKK has distanced itself from a recent terrorist attack in Istanbul (now claimed by another Kurdish group) and it has extended its ceasefire until 2011.

Travellers are also advised to note that flight options may be constrained over the coming week as pilgrims travel to Saudi Arabia to participate in the Hajj.

34 weeks since the election

Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the last week in the aftermath of the wikileaks release and amid the sentencing of Tariq Aziz, prompting fears that fragile Iraq could become further destabilised. At least 79 people were killed and 197 injured in nationwide violence.

After a whole month without a suicide attack, the country experienced three over the past week, one in Mosul, one in Diyala province, and then one in a church in Baghdad as widely reported in the media.

There was one kidnap incident reported in Kirkuk, and one attempted abduction in Anbar province.

In total, at least 36 bomb attacks left 16 people dead and 74 injured. This is actually a slight decline from recent weeks.

Conversely small arms attacks left 14 people dead and 20 injured, which constitutes a rise.

Many of these attacks were targeted, particularly those taking place in Baghdad, with carefully planned shootings and targeted sticky bomb attacks a particular concern.

It has been nearly eight months since national elections were held and there are no signs that an immediate end to the government formation process is in sight.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia suggested that leading Iraqi political candidates meet in Riyadh to help end the deadlocked government formation process.

Over recent weeks Nuri al-Maliki has made several visits to regional allies in an effort to gain support for his bid to retain the presidency.

However, Maliki’s State of Law bloc rejected the Saudi effort, claiming the formation of the Iraqi government is a purely local affair.
For further reading, a series of articles on the Church attack can be found at the following sites:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/31/christian-worshippers-killed-baghdad-raid

http://bit.ly/9wDqTd

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11664020

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/8102419/Pope-condemns-Baghdad-church-massacre.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDj-2JunZ6E

32 Weeks since the election

The US military has released figures outlining the number of Iraqi casualties recorded between 2004 and August 2008. 63,185 civilians and 13,754 members of the Iraqi security forces are reported to have died.

While figures released differ between the military, Iraqi authorities and monitoring organisations, it will likely take an extensive survey to calculate an accurate figure, and indeed the true total may never be known.

However, it is grounds for some analysis, which is that over the period an average week saw over 300 fatalities in the country, not including militants and terrorists. Today, that figure is much lower, with 40 recorded fatalities last week.

In total, bomb attacks left 20 people dead and 95 injured while small arms attacks left 20 people dead and 17 injured last week in Iraq.

Indirect fire (rockets and mortars), including one attack on Baghdad International Airport also left five people injured.

Several shop owners were killed and injured in attacks last week, as were civic employees and members of the Sahwah movement.

A cameraman and an oil worker were also targeted in two separate incidents.

On 11 October the photographer of Mahmoud al-Mashhadani (a senior political figure) was injured in a UVIED (sticky bomb) attack on his car in Abu Ghraib district, Anbar province.

On 14 October an employee from the North Oil Company was injured in a shooting attack on his car on the Baghdad Highway in Kirkuk.

Seven months since the elections

It has now been over seven months since the elections were held in Iraq. In that time, politicians have claimed millions of dollars in expenses and over 1,770 fatalities have been recorded by AKE (official figures are even higher).
Public frustrations continue to rise and disillusionment with the democratic process continues to grow. The formation process has been expedited by the endorsement of Nuri al-Maliki by the Iraqi National Alliance as a prime ministerial candidate but a final settlement may still be weeks away.

In the meantime levels of violence continue to rise in the country, gradually but consistently. At least 40 people were killed and 130 injured in nationwide violence last week.

There were no suicide attacks recorded, but several explosive suicide vests were recovered in a police operation in central Baghdad, indicating ongoing terrorist intent to conduct mass casualty attacks in the capital.

Otherwise, a higher than normal number of bomb attacks left 14 people dead and 109 injured.

In one incident in Anbar province a cameraman was killed by a UVIED (sticky bomb), one of several detonated last week. State employees, the police, Iraqi military and civilians also continue to be targeted.

A particularly high number of small arms attacks also left 20 people dead and 20 injured last week. A kidnap warning has also been issued for foreign private security contractors.

Violence remains concentrated in Baghdad and to a lesser extent in Mosul, with less frequent incidents occurring in the districts surrounding the capital. In the south, levels of violence remain much lower, but numerous police operations continue to take place and criminal and militant elements still pose a major concern.

More positively, a kidnapped girl was released from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province. The number of indirect fire (rockets and mortars) also fell last week, particularly in the capital, although at least one person was injured by such tactics in Kirkuk.

30 weeks since the election

Levels of violence appear to be rising in Baghdad, with a spate of bombings earlier today.

The city also accounted for almost half of all countrywide attacks reported in September.

From a political perspective, it has been almost seven months since Iraq held its elections but the lethargic impasse gained momentum in recent days after the Iraqi National Alliance (a Shi’ah religious bloc) agreed to nominate Nuri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.

Al-Maliki now stands closer to forming a parliamentary majority, but concern has been expressed at his consolidation of power at the expense of Sunni political inclusion.

In terms of violence, the number of attacks fell in Iraq over the past week, with 20 people killed (a figure towards the lower end of the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities).

A rise in the number of bomb attacks left eight people dead and 78 injured.

At the time of writing, a television cameraman is also reported to have been killed in a sticky bomb explosion in Anbar province.

Sticky bomb attacks have risen over the past week, particularly in the capital and the districts surrounding it.

Small arms attacks left 12 people dead and six injured (several involved the use of silencers).

There was an overall decrease in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) which left three people injured.

However, the most significant attack of the week was arguably a suicide bombing in the normally quiet province of Sulaymaniyah (in Iraqi Kurdistan) which left three Peshmerga fighters injured.

AKE’s quarterly statistics are to be published in a report later this week, but findings suggest that on average between two to three Iraqis were abducted per week over the past three months.

This is a worrying increase from the previous quarter and would suggest that criminals may increasingly believe that they will enjoy impunity if the political situation deteriorates.

More positively, however, a kidnapped child was freed from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province during the week.

In another positive development the oil ministry announced the country’s new proven oil figures, which surpass those of Iran and put Iraq behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela only.

AKE has compiled a graph showing the number of attacks taking place in Iraq in September according to province.

Baghdad has been by far the most hazardous part of the country, accounting for almost half of all the month’s violence.

Almost 200 days since the Iraq elections

Wednesday will mark 200 days since national elections were held in Iraq.

Terrorists are evidently still intent on disrupting the political process, particularly as the country remains without a government.

Levels of violence rose last week with militant activity appearing to have returned to pre-Ramadan levels.

At least 88 people were killed and 218 injured countrywide.

Baghdad accounted for almost half of all the attacks, making it the most hazardous part of the country.

The capital and the central provinces together accounted for three-quarters of all attacks, several of which took place on Sunday.

Overall, there was a fall in the number of bombings, but of the 25 which were reported they appeared to be larger than normal, killing 54 people and injuring 166.

A concerning rise in the number of shootings (particularly targeted shootings) left 17 people dead and 30 injured.

A notable rise in the number of indirect fire (rocket and mortar) attacks left at least eight people injured, three in Baghdad and five in Kurdistan.

AKE is also concerned about a rise in the number of bodies being recovered by the security forces. Nine people were found murdered this week, which is the highest figure recorded since June.

On 14 September the security forces found two unidentified bodies, one bearing gunshot wounds, the other bearing signs of torture adjacent to Abu Nuwas street in central Baghdad. Three more dead bodies (two men and a male teenager) bearing signs of torture were also found in Kadhimiyah, Salhiyah and one other undisclosed location in the capital on 16 September.

While these figures are much lower figure than those witnessed in 2007 and earlier, this is still a relatively high concentration in regards to recent trends.

Although the bodies were recovered in different districts these attacks may have been carried out by affiliated individuals, who may have been acting on religious, political or criminal motivations, selecting targets because of their perceived wealth, political affiliation, sexuality or mode of employment.

While world media is currently focussed on Afghanistan in light of its recent elections, conditions in Iraq are just as troubled. Almost seven months on from elections, a government has still not been formed. The political vacuum continues to provoke instability and uncertainty on the ground as a result.

Quiet end to Ramadan

Levels of violence rose slightly in Iraq over the past week with at least 36 people killed and 124 injured in nationwide attacks.

Bomb attacks left 17 people dead and 103 injured, a rise in small arms attacks left 13 people dead and 17 injured while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left four people injured.

There were no suicide attacks reported in the last week of Ramadan.

Violence was most concentred in Mosul and Baghdad although there was a rise in activity in the provinces of Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Two journalists were killed in separate incidents, one in Baghdad and one in Mosul, while two kidnap victims were freed by the police in an operation, also in Mosul.

In general the past fortnight has been quieter than normal, with heightened security measures imposed by the authorities whilst the Muslim population celebrated ‘Eid ul-Fitr. Conditions were particularly quiet over the ‘Eid weekend.

The government-formation process may pick up speed over the coming weeks now that the holy month of Ramadan has passed, but it could still take many weeks to complete.

In a positive development, Pastor Terry Jones of a small church in Florida decided against burning Qur’ans on the anniversary of the September 11th attacks.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged restraint against those intent on persecuting the Iraqi Christian community in response to the event, and with security measures increased around churches at the weekend there were no attacks recorded against Christians in the country.

26 Weeks since the Election

Tomorrow is 7 September. The date will mark six months since Iraq held its elections. A government still has not been formed.

With the exception of Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week and the total number of incidents returned to levels seen before the holy month of Ramadan began.

At least 28 people were killed, which is a 10-week low, and towards the lower end of the 20 to 90 range usually recorded.

Suicide bombings left 12 people dead and 36 injured, non-suicide bombings left 11 people dead and 64 injured while small arms attacks left four people dead and one injured. At least one body was also found abandoned in the north.

More positively, however, was a police operation which saw the release of two kidnap victims held in a village south of Mosul.

A series of mortar attacks also hit the International/Green Zone and an Iraqi military base in Maysan province, although no injuries were reported.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) put forward vice-president Adel Abdul-Mahdi as their candidate to be Iraq’s next prime minister while political figures from the province of Basrah re-iterated their desire for greater political autonomy. Even once the government is formed a raft of political debates will still have to be resolved.

Last official day before Operation New Dawn in Iraq

With US combat operations officially set to end in Iraq, the number of attacks has continued to rise. Last week at least 94 people were killed and 361 injured in attacks scattered across the country.

Suicide bombings left 14 people dead and 47 injured, non-suicide bombings left 50 people dead and 296 injured, small arms attacks left 26 dead and 11 injured, while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and seven injured. Three more bodies were recovered while at least one person was kidnapped (in Kirkuk).

The security forces are currently on a heightened state of alert, but their capabilities are not sufficient enough to prevent ongoing terrorist attacks. Given the spread of violence over the past seven days, attacks should be considered a possibility across the country, although incidents remain most concentrated in Baghdad, eastern Anbar province, western Diyala province and around the northern city of Mosul.