You can also continue to follow my updates on twitter.

Over the course of 2010 levels of violence fluctuated from week to week in Iraq. The overall number of attacks declined over the past two months but conditions could still worsen and in reality things were no better in 2010 than they were in 2009.

Over the course of the year Baghdad was the most hostile part of the country, followed by Mosul. The south was relatively quiet, which bodes well for all the foreign companies looking to invest there, although there’s still a risk of attacks around the region.

In more recent trends, the Iraqi authorities have been put on a state of high alert following a spike in targeted assassinations involving guns with silencers in Baghdad. This increase has been quite substantial and the majority of victims have been state employees, such as ministry workers and senior figures in the police and intelligence services.

In December we noted a decrease in the number of sticky bombs being used by militants. However, the number has started to creep up once again with several sticky bombs being reported around the centre of the country last week. You are advised to be careful when you’re out and about in vehicles, particularly if your car is stuck in traffic. Try not to leave vehicles parked unattended and be sure to check the underside of your car for suspicious items before you get inside.

The anti-US cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has also returned to Iraq. It is expected that he will return to Iran at some stage to complete his religious studies, or he could undermine his own credibility as a pious cleric, therefore compromising his own political influence.

At the moment, he has called for calm amongst his supporters, which is reassuring from a security perspective and an indication that he has shifted to a more conciliatory role in Iraqi politics, quite different from the firebrand anti-US reputation he held in 2007 and the earlier years. However, he is still adamant that the US military has to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011 and if they don’t, he still has a lot of supporters that he can call upon to rise up and conduct destabilising attacks. He is expected to make a statement tomorrow, Saturday the 8th of January 2011. This may give more of an indication of his intents over the coming year.

However, I will continue to provide regular security updates on Iraq Business News and you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

I am also going to begin uploading a regular podcast to this blog, which subscribers will be able to download and listen to.

Otherwise, keep up to date with AKE’s Iraq activities on our page www.akegroup.com/iraq

Up to 60 separate bomb attacks left 81 people dead and 456 injured. Many took place in Shi’ah locations, with attacks recorded in all four of the major Shi’ah holy areas (including Kadhimiyah, Karbala, Najaf and Samarra) over the past week.

Small arms attacks left six people dead and six injured while a notable rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) also left five people dead and 22 injured.

The International/Green Zone was the primary target, although mortars landed in other nearby districts of downtown Baghdad (most probably because of poor targeting), while US military bases were also targeted with the tactic elsewhere in the central provinces.

The Christian community, particularly in Baghdad, is still reeling from an attack on a Chaldean church in Karradah district, and with al-Qaeda warnings against the group many are considering leaving the country.

The media sector is also concerned at the closure of Al-Baghdadiya television station by the authorities amid an investigation into their links to the attack. The bombers called the station to relay their demands and it has now been labelled a “mouthpiece for terrorists”.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has also criticised the findings of an inquiry by the Kurdish regional government which concluded that a freelance journalist was killed by insurgents. Sardasht Othman often censured the Kurdish authorities and his death highlighted allegations of governmental abuse of the media. HRW believe the inquiry is insufficient and could be a cover up.

Overall the capital saw the majority of the violence last week, but there was also an increase in the number of attacks taking place in the central provinces and Ta’mim province in the north.

In an unusual and worrying development there was one suicide attack reported over the week – not in the more hostile central provinces, but on the edge of Arbil city in Iraqi Kurdistan. Fortunately the professional Kurdish security forces were able to kill the bomber before he detonated his vehicle laden with explosives but the incident highlights the fact that even normally secure KRG territory is not entirely immune from terrorism.

At the time of writing Arbil is in the news for another major reason. Senior Iraqi politicians have gathered in the city to discuss the protracted government-formation process. Speculation is that a major announcement is to be made in the coming hours and days. It has now been over eight months since elections were held in the country.

If a government is formed armed supporters of political parties deemed to have lost out in the process may initiate attacks on their political rivals and attempt to destabilise what will likely be a weak coalition government.

Note that cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military will remain a possibility in the Qandil Mountains or KRG territory, although the PKK has distanced itself from a recent terrorist attack in Istanbul (now claimed by another Kurdish group) and it has extended its ceasefire until 2011.

Travellers are also advised to note that flight options may be constrained over the coming week as pilgrims travel to Saudi Arabia to participate in the Hajj.

After a whole month without a suicide attack, the country experienced three over the past week, one in Mosul, one in Diyala province, and then one in a church in Baghdad as widely reported in the media.

There was one kidnap incident reported in Kirkuk, and one attempted abduction in Anbar province.

In total, at least 36 bomb attacks left 16 people dead and 74 injured. This is actually a slight decline from recent weeks.

Conversely small arms attacks left 14 people dead and 20 injured, which constitutes a rise.

Many of these attacks were targeted, particularly those taking place in Baghdad, with carefully planned shootings and targeted sticky bomb attacks a particular concern.

It has been nearly eight months since national elections were held and there are no signs that an immediate end to the government formation process is in sight.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia suggested that leading Iraqi political candidates meet in Riyadh to help end the deadlocked government formation process.

Over recent weeks Nuri al-Maliki has made several visits to regional allies in an effort to gain support for his bid to retain the presidency.

However, Maliki’s State of Law bloc rejected the Saudi effort, claiming the formation of the Iraqi government is a purely local affair.
For further reading, a series of articles on the Church attack can be found at the following sites:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/oct/31/christian-worshippers-killed-baghdad-raid

http://bit.ly/9wDqTd

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-11664020

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/8102419/Pope-condemns-Baghdad-church-massacre.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDj-2JunZ6E

While figures released differ between the military, Iraqi authorities and monitoring organisations, it will likely take an extensive survey to calculate an accurate figure, and indeed the true total may never be known.

However, it is grounds for some analysis, which is that over the period an average week saw over 300 fatalities in the country, not including militants and terrorists. Today, that figure is much lower, with 40 recorded fatalities last week.

In total, bomb attacks left 20 people dead and 95 injured while small arms attacks left 20 people dead and 17 injured last week in Iraq.

Indirect fire (rockets and mortars), including one attack on Baghdad International Airport also left five people injured.

Several shop owners were killed and injured in attacks last week, as were civic employees and members of the Sahwah movement.

A cameraman and an oil worker were also targeted in two separate incidents.

On 11 October the photographer of Mahmoud al-Mashhadani (a senior political figure) was injured in a UVIED (sticky bomb) attack on his car in Abu Ghraib district, Anbar province.

On 14 October an employee from the North Oil Company was injured in a shooting attack on his car on the Baghdad Highway in Kirkuk.

Sticky bombs, also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs), are small bombs that are affixed to (usually stationary) vehicles, often using magnets. There is a risk of such devices being attached to vehicles stuck in congestion (such as during the rush hour in urbanised areas). Otherwise, however, the majority of sticky bombs are affixed to a vehicle while it is parked. They are then triggered by a remote control when the vehicle becomes occupied.

I produced a map for the weekly AKE Iraq report showing the location of sticky bomb attacks in the country over the past week. I thought I would share it.

Sticky Bomb Attacks in Iraq Last Week

The majority of the attacks were concentrated in Baghdad and the Karmah area of Anbar province.

Baghdad normally sees the majority of sticky bomb attacks. Karmah has been quite a hotspot for violence in general over the last few days.

Just be careful when you’re stuck in traffic and don’t leave your cars unattended in unsecure areas if you can.