Update

I have been made the security blogger for investment website Iraq Business News and for now I will be contributing to my own JohnFDrake blog less frequently.

However, I will continue to provide regular security updates on Iraq Business News and you can follow me on twitter at www.twitter.com/johnfdrake

I am also going to begin uploading a regular podcast to this blog, which subscribers will be able to download and listen to.

Otherwise, keep up to date with AKE’s Iraq activities on our page www.akegroup.com/iraq

Sticky Bombs

We have noticed a rise in the number of sticky bomb attacks taking place in Iraq over the last few weeks.

Sticky bombs, also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs), are small bombs that are affixed to (usually stationary) vehicles, often using magnets. There is a risk of such devices being attached to vehicles stuck in congestion (such as during the rush hour in urbanised areas). Otherwise, however, the majority of sticky bombs are affixed to a vehicle while it is parked. They are then triggered by a remote control when the vehicle becomes occupied.

I produced a map for the weekly AKE Iraq report showing the location of sticky bomb attacks in the country over the past week. I thought I would share it.

Sticky Bomb Attacks in Iraq Last Week

The majority of the attacks were concentrated in Baghdad and the Karmah area of Anbar province.

Baghdad normally sees the majority of sticky bomb attacks. Karmah has been quite a hotspot for violence in general over the last few days.

Just be careful when you’re stuck in traffic and don’t leave your cars unattended in unsecure areas if you can.

Seven months since the elections

It has now been over seven months since the elections were held in Iraq. In that time, politicians have claimed millions of dollars in expenses and over 1,770 fatalities have been recorded by AKE (official figures are even higher).
Public frustrations continue to rise and disillusionment with the democratic process continues to grow. The formation process has been expedited by the endorsement of Nuri al-Maliki by the Iraqi National Alliance as a prime ministerial candidate but a final settlement may still be weeks away.

In the meantime levels of violence continue to rise in the country, gradually but consistently. At least 40 people were killed and 130 injured in nationwide violence last week.

There were no suicide attacks recorded, but several explosive suicide vests were recovered in a police operation in central Baghdad, indicating ongoing terrorist intent to conduct mass casualty attacks in the capital.

Otherwise, a higher than normal number of bomb attacks left 14 people dead and 109 injured.

In one incident in Anbar province a cameraman was killed by a UVIED (sticky bomb), one of several detonated last week. State employees, the police, Iraqi military and civilians also continue to be targeted.

A particularly high number of small arms attacks also left 20 people dead and 20 injured last week. A kidnap warning has also been issued for foreign private security contractors.

Violence remains concentrated in Baghdad and to a lesser extent in Mosul, with less frequent incidents occurring in the districts surrounding the capital. In the south, levels of violence remain much lower, but numerous police operations continue to take place and criminal and militant elements still pose a major concern.

More positively, a kidnapped girl was released from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province. The number of indirect fire (rockets and mortars) also fell last week, particularly in the capital, although at least one person was injured by such tactics in Kirkuk.

Almost 200 days since the Iraq elections

Wednesday will mark 200 days since national elections were held in Iraq.

Terrorists are evidently still intent on disrupting the political process, particularly as the country remains without a government.

Levels of violence rose last week with militant activity appearing to have returned to pre-Ramadan levels.

At least 88 people were killed and 218 injured countrywide.

Baghdad accounted for almost half of all the attacks, making it the most hazardous part of the country.

The capital and the central provinces together accounted for three-quarters of all attacks, several of which took place on Sunday.

Overall, there was a fall in the number of bombings, but of the 25 which were reported they appeared to be larger than normal, killing 54 people and injuring 166.

A concerning rise in the number of shootings (particularly targeted shootings) left 17 people dead and 30 injured.

A notable rise in the number of indirect fire (rocket and mortar) attacks left at least eight people injured, three in Baghdad and five in Kurdistan.

AKE is also concerned about a rise in the number of bodies being recovered by the security forces. Nine people were found murdered this week, which is the highest figure recorded since June.

On 14 September the security forces found two unidentified bodies, one bearing gunshot wounds, the other bearing signs of torture adjacent to Abu Nuwas street in central Baghdad. Three more dead bodies (two men and a male teenager) bearing signs of torture were also found in Kadhimiyah, Salhiyah and one other undisclosed location in the capital on 16 September.

While these figures are much lower figure than those witnessed in 2007 and earlier, this is still a relatively high concentration in regards to recent trends.

Although the bodies were recovered in different districts these attacks may have been carried out by affiliated individuals, who may have been acting on religious, political or criminal motivations, selecting targets because of their perceived wealth, political affiliation, sexuality or mode of employment.

While world media is currently focussed on Afghanistan in light of its recent elections, conditions in Iraq are just as troubled. Almost seven months on from elections, a government has still not been formed. The political vacuum continues to provoke instability and uncertainty on the ground as a result.

Spate of terrorist attacks

The flashpoints reported in a string of terrorist attacks in Iraq today include the following towns and areas so far:

Fallujah (Anbar) Ramadi (Anbar) Allawi (Baghdad) Qahirah (Baghdad) Basrah (Basrah) Buhriz (Diyala) Muqdadiyah (Diyala) Karbala (Karbala) Mosul (Ninawa) Tal Afar (Ninawa) Dujayl (Salah ad-Din) Tikrit (Salah ad-Din) Kirkuk (Ta’mim) Kut (Wassit)

Open sources are stating that 48 people have been killed and 286 injured in the violence.

The timing of the attacks would suggest co-ordination by the perpetrators, which would in turn indicate the involvement of a major group such as the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite the arrest and killing of key senior figures in the organisation earlier this year it does not appear deterred.

The number of security incidents taking place in the country. Yesterday AKE revised upwards the risk rating for Baghdad on our intelligence website Global Intake (www.globalintake.com).

The increase may be due to a combination of events.

* Terrorists have high intent to conduct attacks in order to discredit the US as it ends its combat missions in the country.

* Ramadan has traditionally been a time of higher than normal tensions, although conditions were fairly quiet over the last two years.

* The government still has not been formed, nearly six months after the polls, leaving a political vacuum which militant groups look increasingly intent on taking advantage of.

With the Islamic State of Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks on judges in the capital (as documented in AKE’s weekly Iraq report on Monday), we may hear a similar claim of responsibility from the group for these latest terrorist attacks in the coming hours and days. We are far less likely to hear that a government has been formed.

Increase in Iraq Violence

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week, a period which saw US combat operations draw to a close in the country.

At least 98 people were killed and 230 injured in nationwide violence, which is above the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities and part of what appears to be a sustained rise in terrorist activity over the past month.

The most devastating attack took place in central Baghdad, where a suicide bomber targeted army recruits in Bab al-Muadham district, killing dozens and injuring up to 130. Otherwise, non-suicide bombings left 22 people dead and 92 injured.

In last week’s Iraq report AKE warned of the possible use of firearms with silencers for targeted killings in the capital. This warning has been realised with several ministry employees, judges, police officers and even a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) shot dead in apparently targeted close quarter assassinations. Countrywide, this worrying rise in small arms attacks left 24 people dead and seven injured.

The capital has also seen a rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), most of which targeted the International/Green Zone, although several fell short of this target, causing injuries in surrounding residential districts.

More positively, the security forces managed to rescue a kidnapped civilian in Diyala province while there were no reported incidents of violence in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG territory).