Sticky Bombs

We have noticed a rise in the number of sticky bomb attacks taking place in Iraq over the last few weeks.

Sticky bombs, also known as Under Vehicle Improvised Explosive Devices (UVIEDs), are small bombs that are affixed to (usually stationary) vehicles, often using magnets. There is a risk of such devices being attached to vehicles stuck in congestion (such as during the rush hour in urbanised areas). Otherwise, however, the majority of sticky bombs are affixed to a vehicle while it is parked. They are then triggered by a remote control when the vehicle becomes occupied.

I produced a map for the weekly AKE Iraq report showing the location of sticky bomb attacks in the country over the past week. I thought I would share it.

Sticky Bomb Attacks in Iraq Last Week

The majority of the attacks were concentrated in Baghdad and the Karmah area of Anbar province.

Baghdad normally sees the majority of sticky bomb attacks. Karmah has been quite a hotspot for violence in general over the last few days.

Just be careful when you’re stuck in traffic and don’t leave your cars unattended in unsecure areas if you can.

29 Weeks Since the Elections

The map above shows the frequency of attacks taking place in Iraq between April and June of this year on a district level in Iraq.

Over the coming weeks I will be working out what the frequency of attacks has been between July and September. This will answer the question, not only of whether or not conditions have worsened or improved in Iraq since the elections, but in precisely which districts conditions have improved and worsened.

Until I complete this review, you are welcome to participate in my temporary poll “have conditions worsened in #Iraq since the elections?” http://poll.fm/29vqc

Last week the number of attacks taking place in Iraq rose, but conversely the number of people actually killed in attacks fell.

Most of the bombs and mortars initiated by militants seemed to cause minimal casualties.

In total, at least 28 fatalities were documented, which is towards the lower range of 20-90 normally recorded in an average week.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad and Mosul and in an unusual development, last week saw more attacks in the south of the country than in the central provinces.

Mostly small bombings countrywide left 12 people dead and 72 injured, while a lower than usual number of small arms attacks left 11 people dead and one injured.

Nonetheless, these shootings were largely targeted (particularly implicating civil employees and political figures in the capital) and should not be taken lightly. These assassinations appear to be a more regular occurrence at present.

The week also saw a major rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), which were concentrated on the International/Green Zone.

There were two suicide attacks, one in Fallujah district and one in Mosul, together leaving four people dead (not including the bombers) and five people injured.

An unusually high number of 16 people were also kidnapped, including 14 people seized in a bus in Maysan province, but all were released unharmed in police operations.

The Oil Ministry reported that Iraq’s oil exports were slightly lower than usual in August due to acts of sabotage, technical problems and weather issues.

A nationwide census is to be held on 24 October. If this goes ahead (several have been cancelled and delayed in the past) it could stoke violence in the ethnically mixed provinces of Ta’mim, Ninawa and Diyala.

Cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military are likely to continue in the Qandil Mountains as the two countries pursue Kurdish rebels responsible for recent attacks in their territory.

It has been almost seven months since national elections were held, and a new government is not expected for several more weeks at least.

The accompanying political vacuum will continue to act as a destabilising force, and terrorists will continue in their attempts to disrupt the democratic process.

Last official day before Operation New Dawn in Iraq

With US combat operations officially set to end in Iraq, the number of attacks has continued to rise. Last week at least 94 people were killed and 361 injured in attacks scattered across the country.

Suicide bombings left 14 people dead and 47 injured, non-suicide bombings left 50 people dead and 296 injured, small arms attacks left 26 dead and 11 injured, while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and seven injured. Three more bodies were recovered while at least one person was kidnapped (in Kirkuk).

The security forces are currently on a heightened state of alert, but their capabilities are not sufficient enough to prevent ongoing terrorist attacks. Given the spread of violence over the past seven days, attacks should be considered a possibility across the country, although incidents remain most concentrated in Baghdad, eastern Anbar province, western Diyala province and around the northern city of Mosul.

Spate of terrorist attacks

The flashpoints reported in a string of terrorist attacks in Iraq today include the following towns and areas so far:

Fallujah (Anbar) Ramadi (Anbar) Allawi (Baghdad) Qahirah (Baghdad) Basrah (Basrah) Buhriz (Diyala) Muqdadiyah (Diyala) Karbala (Karbala) Mosul (Ninawa) Tal Afar (Ninawa) Dujayl (Salah ad-Din) Tikrit (Salah ad-Din) Kirkuk (Ta’mim) Kut (Wassit)

Open sources are stating that 48 people have been killed and 286 injured in the violence.

The timing of the attacks would suggest co-ordination by the perpetrators, which would in turn indicate the involvement of a major group such as the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite the arrest and killing of key senior figures in the organisation earlier this year it does not appear deterred.

The number of security incidents taking place in the country. Yesterday AKE revised upwards the risk rating for Baghdad on our intelligence website Global Intake (www.globalintake.com).

The increase may be due to a combination of events.

* Terrorists have high intent to conduct attacks in order to discredit the US as it ends its combat missions in the country.

* Ramadan has traditionally been a time of higher than normal tensions, although conditions were fairly quiet over the last two years.

* The government still has not been formed, nearly six months after the polls, leaving a political vacuum which militant groups look increasingly intent on taking advantage of.

With the Islamic State of Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks on judges in the capital (as documented in AKE’s weekly Iraq report on Monday), we may hear a similar claim of responsibility from the group for these latest terrorist attacks in the coming hours and days. We are far less likely to hear that a government has been formed.