29 Weeks Since the Elections

The map above shows the frequency of attacks taking place in Iraq between April and June of this year on a district level in Iraq.

Over the coming weeks I will be working out what the frequency of attacks has been between July and September. This will answer the question, not only of whether or not conditions have worsened or improved in Iraq since the elections, but in precisely which districts conditions have improved and worsened.

Until I complete this review, you are welcome to participate in my temporary poll “have conditions worsened in #Iraq since the elections?” http://poll.fm/29vqc

Last week the number of attacks taking place in Iraq rose, but conversely the number of people actually killed in attacks fell.

Most of the bombs and mortars initiated by militants seemed to cause minimal casualties.

In total, at least 28 fatalities were documented, which is towards the lower range of 20-90 normally recorded in an average week.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad and Mosul and in an unusual development, last week saw more attacks in the south of the country than in the central provinces.

Mostly small bombings countrywide left 12 people dead and 72 injured, while a lower than usual number of small arms attacks left 11 people dead and one injured.

Nonetheless, these shootings were largely targeted (particularly implicating civil employees and political figures in the capital) and should not be taken lightly. These assassinations appear to be a more regular occurrence at present.

The week also saw a major rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), which were concentrated on the International/Green Zone.

There were two suicide attacks, one in Fallujah district and one in Mosul, together leaving four people dead (not including the bombers) and five people injured.

An unusually high number of 16 people were also kidnapped, including 14 people seized in a bus in Maysan province, but all were released unharmed in police operations.

The Oil Ministry reported that Iraq’s oil exports were slightly lower than usual in August due to acts of sabotage, technical problems and weather issues.

A nationwide census is to be held on 24 October. If this goes ahead (several have been cancelled and delayed in the past) it could stoke violence in the ethnically mixed provinces of Ta’mim, Ninawa and Diyala.

Cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military are likely to continue in the Qandil Mountains as the two countries pursue Kurdish rebels responsible for recent attacks in their territory.

It has been almost seven months since national elections were held, and a new government is not expected for several more weeks at least.

The accompanying political vacuum will continue to act as a destabilising force, and terrorists will continue in their attempts to disrupt the democratic process.

Increase in Iraq Violence

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week, a period which saw US combat operations draw to a close in the country.

At least 98 people were killed and 230 injured in nationwide violence, which is above the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities and part of what appears to be a sustained rise in terrorist activity over the past month.

The most devastating attack took place in central Baghdad, where a suicide bomber targeted army recruits in Bab al-Muadham district, killing dozens and injuring up to 130. Otherwise, non-suicide bombings left 22 people dead and 92 injured.

In last week’s Iraq report AKE warned of the possible use of firearms with silencers for targeted killings in the capital. This warning has been realised with several ministry employees, judges, police officers and even a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) shot dead in apparently targeted close quarter assassinations. Countrywide, this worrying rise in small arms attacks left 24 people dead and seven injured.

The capital has also seen a rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), most of which targeted the International/Green Zone, although several fell short of this target, causing injuries in surrounding residential districts.

More positively, the security forces managed to rescue a kidnapped civilian in Diyala province while there were no reported incidents of violence in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG territory).