Weekly Update, 7 January 2011

Over the course of 2010 levels of violence fluctuated from week to week in Iraq. The overall number of attacks declined over the past two months but conditions could still worsen and in reality things were no better in 2010 than they were in 2009.

Over the course of the year Baghdad was the most hostile part of the country, followed by Mosul. The south was relatively quiet, which bodes well for all the foreign companies looking to invest there, although there’s still a risk of attacks around the region.

In more recent trends, the Iraqi authorities have been put on a state of high alert following a spike in targeted assassinations involving guns with silencers in Baghdad. This increase has been quite substantial and the majority of victims have been state employees, such as ministry workers and senior figures in the police and intelligence services.

In December we noted a decrease in the number of sticky bombs being used by militants. However, the number has started to creep up once again with several sticky bombs being reported around the centre of the country last week. You are advised to be careful when you’re out and about in vehicles, particularly if your car is stuck in traffic. Try not to leave vehicles parked unattended and be sure to check the underside of your car for suspicious items before you get inside.

The anti-US cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has also returned to Iraq. It is expected that he will return to Iran at some stage to complete his religious studies, or he could undermine his own credibility as a pious cleric, therefore compromising his own political influence.

At the moment, he has called for calm amongst his supporters, which is reassuring from a security perspective and an indication that he has shifted to a more conciliatory role in Iraqi politics, quite different from the firebrand anti-US reputation he held in 2007 and the earlier years. However, he is still adamant that the US military has to withdraw from Iraq by the end of 2011 and if they don’t, he still has a lot of supporters that he can call upon to rise up and conduct destabilising attacks. He is expected to make a statement tomorrow, Saturday the 8th of January 2011. This may give more of an indication of his intents over the coming year.

30 weeks since the election

Levels of violence appear to be rising in Baghdad, with a spate of bombings earlier today.

The city also accounted for almost half of all countrywide attacks reported in September.

From a political perspective, it has been almost seven months since Iraq held its elections but the lethargic impasse gained momentum in recent days after the Iraqi National Alliance (a Shi’ah religious bloc) agreed to nominate Nuri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.

Al-Maliki now stands closer to forming a parliamentary majority, but concern has been expressed at his consolidation of power at the expense of Sunni political inclusion.

In terms of violence, the number of attacks fell in Iraq over the past week, with 20 people killed (a figure towards the lower end of the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities).

A rise in the number of bomb attacks left eight people dead and 78 injured.

At the time of writing, a television cameraman is also reported to have been killed in a sticky bomb explosion in Anbar province.

Sticky bomb attacks have risen over the past week, particularly in the capital and the districts surrounding it.

Small arms attacks left 12 people dead and six injured (several involved the use of silencers).

There was an overall decrease in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) which left three people injured.

However, the most significant attack of the week was arguably a suicide bombing in the normally quiet province of Sulaymaniyah (in Iraqi Kurdistan) which left three Peshmerga fighters injured.

AKE’s quarterly statistics are to be published in a report later this week, but findings suggest that on average between two to three Iraqis were abducted per week over the past three months.

This is a worrying increase from the previous quarter and would suggest that criminals may increasingly believe that they will enjoy impunity if the political situation deteriorates.

More positively, however, a kidnapped child was freed from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province during the week.

In another positive development the oil ministry announced the country’s new proven oil figures, which surpass those of Iran and put Iraq behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela only.

AKE has compiled a graph showing the number of attacks taking place in Iraq in September according to province.

Baghdad has been by far the most hazardous part of the country, accounting for almost half of all the month’s violence.