26 Weeks since the Election

Tomorrow is 7 September. The date will mark six months since Iraq held its elections. A government still has not been formed.

With the exception of Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week and the total number of incidents returned to levels seen before the holy month of Ramadan began.

At least 28 people were killed, which is a 10-week low, and towards the lower end of the 20 to 90 range usually recorded.

Suicide bombings left 12 people dead and 36 injured, non-suicide bombings left 11 people dead and 64 injured while small arms attacks left four people dead and one injured. At least one body was also found abandoned in the north.

More positively, however, was a police operation which saw the release of two kidnap victims held in a village south of Mosul.

A series of mortar attacks also hit the International/Green Zone and an Iraqi military base in Maysan province, although no injuries were reported.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) put forward vice-president Adel Abdul-Mahdi as their candidate to be Iraq’s next prime minister while political figures from the province of Basrah re-iterated their desire for greater political autonomy. Even once the government is formed a raft of political debates will still have to be resolved.

Spate of terrorist attacks

The flashpoints reported in a string of terrorist attacks in Iraq today include the following towns and areas so far:

Fallujah (Anbar) Ramadi (Anbar) Allawi (Baghdad) Qahirah (Baghdad) Basrah (Basrah) Buhriz (Diyala) Muqdadiyah (Diyala) Karbala (Karbala) Mosul (Ninawa) Tal Afar (Ninawa) Dujayl (Salah ad-Din) Tikrit (Salah ad-Din) Kirkuk (Ta’mim) Kut (Wassit)

Open sources are stating that 48 people have been killed and 286 injured in the violence.

The timing of the attacks would suggest co-ordination by the perpetrators, which would in turn indicate the involvement of a major group such as the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite the arrest and killing of key senior figures in the organisation earlier this year it does not appear deterred.

The number of security incidents taking place in the country. Yesterday AKE revised upwards the risk rating for Baghdad on our intelligence website Global Intake (www.globalintake.com).

The increase may be due to a combination of events.

* Terrorists have high intent to conduct attacks in order to discredit the US as it ends its combat missions in the country.

* Ramadan has traditionally been a time of higher than normal tensions, although conditions were fairly quiet over the last two years.

* The government still has not been formed, nearly six months after the polls, leaving a political vacuum which militant groups look increasingly intent on taking advantage of.

With the Islamic State of Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks on judges in the capital (as documented in AKE’s weekly Iraq report on Monday), we may hear a similar claim of responsibility from the group for these latest terrorist attacks in the coming hours and days. We are far less likely to hear that a government has been formed.