30 weeks since the election

Levels of violence appear to be rising in Baghdad, with a spate of bombings earlier today.

The city also accounted for almost half of all countrywide attacks reported in September.

From a political perspective, it has been almost seven months since Iraq held its elections but the lethargic impasse gained momentum in recent days after the Iraqi National Alliance (a Shi’ah religious bloc) agreed to nominate Nuri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.

Al-Maliki now stands closer to forming a parliamentary majority, but concern has been expressed at his consolidation of power at the expense of Sunni political inclusion.

In terms of violence, the number of attacks fell in Iraq over the past week, with 20 people killed (a figure towards the lower end of the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities).

A rise in the number of bomb attacks left eight people dead and 78 injured.

At the time of writing, a television cameraman is also reported to have been killed in a sticky bomb explosion in Anbar province.

Sticky bomb attacks have risen over the past week, particularly in the capital and the districts surrounding it.

Small arms attacks left 12 people dead and six injured (several involved the use of silencers).

There was an overall decrease in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) which left three people injured.

However, the most significant attack of the week was arguably a suicide bombing in the normally quiet province of Sulaymaniyah (in Iraqi Kurdistan) which left three Peshmerga fighters injured.

AKE’s quarterly statistics are to be published in a report later this week, but findings suggest that on average between two to three Iraqis were abducted per week over the past three months.

This is a worrying increase from the previous quarter and would suggest that criminals may increasingly believe that they will enjoy impunity if the political situation deteriorates.

More positively, however, a kidnapped child was freed from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province during the week.

In another positive development the oil ministry announced the country’s new proven oil figures, which surpass those of Iran and put Iraq behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela only.

AKE has compiled a graph showing the number of attacks taking place in Iraq in September according to province.

Baghdad has been by far the most hazardous part of the country, accounting for almost half of all the month’s violence.

29 Weeks Since the Elections

The map above shows the frequency of attacks taking place in Iraq between April and June of this year on a district level in Iraq.

Over the coming weeks I will be working out what the frequency of attacks has been between July and September. This will answer the question, not only of whether or not conditions have worsened or improved in Iraq since the elections, but in precisely which districts conditions have improved and worsened.

Until I complete this review, you are welcome to participate in my temporary poll “have conditions worsened in #Iraq since the elections?” http://poll.fm/29vqc

Last week the number of attacks taking place in Iraq rose, but conversely the number of people actually killed in attacks fell.

Most of the bombs and mortars initiated by militants seemed to cause minimal casualties.

In total, at least 28 fatalities were documented, which is towards the lower range of 20-90 normally recorded in an average week.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad and Mosul and in an unusual development, last week saw more attacks in the south of the country than in the central provinces.

Mostly small bombings countrywide left 12 people dead and 72 injured, while a lower than usual number of small arms attacks left 11 people dead and one injured.

Nonetheless, these shootings were largely targeted (particularly implicating civil employees and political figures in the capital) and should not be taken lightly. These assassinations appear to be a more regular occurrence at present.

The week also saw a major rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), which were concentrated on the International/Green Zone.

There were two suicide attacks, one in Fallujah district and one in Mosul, together leaving four people dead (not including the bombers) and five people injured.

An unusually high number of 16 people were also kidnapped, including 14 people seized in a bus in Maysan province, but all were released unharmed in police operations.

The Oil Ministry reported that Iraq’s oil exports were slightly lower than usual in August due to acts of sabotage, technical problems and weather issues.

A nationwide census is to be held on 24 October. If this goes ahead (several have been cancelled and delayed in the past) it could stoke violence in the ethnically mixed provinces of Ta’mim, Ninawa and Diyala.

Cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military are likely to continue in the Qandil Mountains as the two countries pursue Kurdish rebels responsible for recent attacks in their territory.

It has been almost seven months since national elections were held, and a new government is not expected for several more weeks at least.

The accompanying political vacuum will continue to act as a destabilising force, and terrorists will continue in their attempts to disrupt the democratic process.