32 Weeks since the election

The US military has released figures outlining the number of Iraqi casualties recorded between 2004 and August 2008. 63,185 civilians and 13,754 members of the Iraqi security forces are reported to have died.

While figures released differ between the military, Iraqi authorities and monitoring organisations, it will likely take an extensive survey to calculate an accurate figure, and indeed the true total may never be known.

However, it is grounds for some analysis, which is that over the period an average week saw over 300 fatalities in the country, not including militants and terrorists. Today, that figure is much lower, with 40 recorded fatalities last week.

In total, bomb attacks left 20 people dead and 95 injured while small arms attacks left 20 people dead and 17 injured last week in Iraq.

Indirect fire (rockets and mortars), including one attack on Baghdad International Airport also left five people injured.

Several shop owners were killed and injured in attacks last week, as were civic employees and members of the Sahwah movement.

A cameraman and an oil worker were also targeted in two separate incidents.

On 11 October the photographer of Mahmoud al-Mashhadani (a senior political figure) was injured in a UVIED (sticky bomb) attack on his car in Abu Ghraib district, Anbar province.

On 14 October an employee from the North Oil Company was injured in a shooting attack on his car on the Baghdad Highway in Kirkuk.

Seven months since the elections

It has now been over seven months since the elections were held in Iraq. In that time, politicians have claimed millions of dollars in expenses and over 1,770 fatalities have been recorded by AKE (official figures are even higher).
Public frustrations continue to rise and disillusionment with the democratic process continues to grow. The formation process has been expedited by the endorsement of Nuri al-Maliki by the Iraqi National Alliance as a prime ministerial candidate but a final settlement may still be weeks away.

In the meantime levels of violence continue to rise in the country, gradually but consistently. At least 40 people were killed and 130 injured in nationwide violence last week.

There were no suicide attacks recorded, but several explosive suicide vests were recovered in a police operation in central Baghdad, indicating ongoing terrorist intent to conduct mass casualty attacks in the capital.

Otherwise, a higher than normal number of bomb attacks left 14 people dead and 109 injured.

In one incident in Anbar province a cameraman was killed by a UVIED (sticky bomb), one of several detonated last week. State employees, the police, Iraqi military and civilians also continue to be targeted.

A particularly high number of small arms attacks also left 20 people dead and 20 injured last week. A kidnap warning has also been issued for foreign private security contractors.

Violence remains concentrated in Baghdad and to a lesser extent in Mosul, with less frequent incidents occurring in the districts surrounding the capital. In the south, levels of violence remain much lower, but numerous police operations continue to take place and criminal and militant elements still pose a major concern.

More positively, a kidnapped girl was released from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province. The number of indirect fire (rockets and mortars) also fell last week, particularly in the capital, although at least one person was injured by such tactics in Kirkuk.

26 Weeks since the Election

Tomorrow is 7 September. The date will mark six months since Iraq held its elections. A government still has not been formed.

With the exception of Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week and the total number of incidents returned to levels seen before the holy month of Ramadan began.

At least 28 people were killed, which is a 10-week low, and towards the lower end of the 20 to 90 range usually recorded.

Suicide bombings left 12 people dead and 36 injured, non-suicide bombings left 11 people dead and 64 injured while small arms attacks left four people dead and one injured. At least one body was also found abandoned in the north.

More positively, however, was a police operation which saw the release of two kidnap victims held in a village south of Mosul.

A series of mortar attacks also hit the International/Green Zone and an Iraqi military base in Maysan province, although no injuries were reported.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) put forward vice-president Adel Abdul-Mahdi as their candidate to be Iraq’s next prime minister while political figures from the province of Basrah re-iterated their desire for greater political autonomy. Even once the government is formed a raft of political debates will still have to be resolved.

Last official day before Operation New Dawn in Iraq

With US combat operations officially set to end in Iraq, the number of attacks has continued to rise. Last week at least 94 people were killed and 361 injured in attacks scattered across the country.

Suicide bombings left 14 people dead and 47 injured, non-suicide bombings left 50 people dead and 296 injured, small arms attacks left 26 dead and 11 injured, while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and seven injured. Three more bodies were recovered while at least one person was kidnapped (in Kirkuk).

The security forces are currently on a heightened state of alert, but their capabilities are not sufficient enough to prevent ongoing terrorist attacks. Given the spread of violence over the past seven days, attacks should be considered a possibility across the country, although incidents remain most concentrated in Baghdad, eastern Anbar province, western Diyala province and around the northern city of Mosul.

Spate of terrorist attacks

The flashpoints reported in a string of terrorist attacks in Iraq today include the following towns and areas so far:

Fallujah (Anbar) Ramadi (Anbar) Allawi (Baghdad) Qahirah (Baghdad) Basrah (Basrah) Buhriz (Diyala) Muqdadiyah (Diyala) Karbala (Karbala) Mosul (Ninawa) Tal Afar (Ninawa) Dujayl (Salah ad-Din) Tikrit (Salah ad-Din) Kirkuk (Ta’mim) Kut (Wassit)

Open sources are stating that 48 people have been killed and 286 injured in the violence.

The timing of the attacks would suggest co-ordination by the perpetrators, which would in turn indicate the involvement of a major group such as the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite the arrest and killing of key senior figures in the organisation earlier this year it does not appear deterred.

The number of security incidents taking place in the country. Yesterday AKE revised upwards the risk rating for Baghdad on our intelligence website Global Intake (www.globalintake.com).

The increase may be due to a combination of events.

* Terrorists have high intent to conduct attacks in order to discredit the US as it ends its combat missions in the country.

* Ramadan has traditionally been a time of higher than normal tensions, although conditions were fairly quiet over the last two years.

* The government still has not been formed, nearly six months after the polls, leaving a political vacuum which militant groups look increasingly intent on taking advantage of.

With the Islamic State of Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks on judges in the capital (as documented in AKE’s weekly Iraq report on Monday), we may hear a similar claim of responsibility from the group for these latest terrorist attacks in the coming hours and days. We are far less likely to hear that a government has been formed.

Increase in Iraq Violence

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week, a period which saw US combat operations draw to a close in the country.

At least 98 people were killed and 230 injured in nationwide violence, which is above the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities and part of what appears to be a sustained rise in terrorist activity over the past month.

The most devastating attack took place in central Baghdad, where a suicide bomber targeted army recruits in Bab al-Muadham district, killing dozens and injuring up to 130. Otherwise, non-suicide bombings left 22 people dead and 92 injured.

In last week’s Iraq report AKE warned of the possible use of firearms with silencers for targeted killings in the capital. This warning has been realised with several ministry employees, judges, police officers and even a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) shot dead in apparently targeted close quarter assassinations. Countrywide, this worrying rise in small arms attacks left 24 people dead and seven injured.

The capital has also seen a rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), most of which targeted the International/Green Zone, although several fell short of this target, causing injuries in surrounding residential districts.

More positively, the security forces managed to rescue a kidnapped civilian in Diyala province while there were no reported incidents of violence in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG territory).