30 weeks since the election

Levels of violence appear to be rising in Baghdad, with a spate of bombings earlier today.
The city also accounted for almost half of all countrywide attacks reported in September.
From a political perspective, it has been almost seven months since Iraq held its elections but the lethargic impasse gained momentum in recent days after the Iraqi National Alliance (a Shi’ah religious bloc) agreed to nominate Nuri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.
Al-Maliki now stands closer to forming a parliamentary majority, but concern has been expressed at his consolidation of power at the expense of Sunni political inclusion.
In terms of violence, the number of attacks fell in Iraq over the past week, with 20 people killed (a figure towards the lower end of the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities).
A rise in the number of bomb attacks left eight people dead and 78 injured.
At the time of writing, a television cameraman is also reported to have been killed in a sticky bomb explosion in Anbar province.
Sticky bomb attacks have risen over the past week, particularly in the capital and the districts surrounding it.
Small arms attacks left 12 people dead and six injured (several involved the use of silencers).
There was an overall decrease in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) which left three people injured.
However, the most significant attack of the week was arguably a suicide bombing in the normally quiet province of Sulaymaniyah (in Iraqi Kurdistan) which left three Peshmerga fighters injured.
AKE’s quarterly statistics are to be published in a report later this week, but findings suggest that on average between two to three Iraqis were abducted per week over the past three months.
This is a worrying increase from the previous quarter and would suggest that criminals may increasingly believe that they will enjoy impunity if the political situation deteriorates.
More positively, however, a kidnapped child was freed from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province during the week.
In another positive development the oil ministry announced the country’s new proven oil figures, which surpass those of Iran and put Iraq behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela only.
AKE has compiled a graph showing the number of attacks taking place in Iraq in September according to province.
Baghdad has been by far the most hazardous part of the country, accounting for almost half of all the month’s violence.

Almost 200 days since the Iraq elections

Wednesday will mark 200 days since national elections were held in Iraq.

Terrorists are evidently still intent on disrupting the political process, particularly as the country remains without a government.

Levels of violence rose last week with militant activity appearing to have returned to pre-Ramadan levels.

At least 88 people were killed and 218 injured countrywide.

Baghdad accounted for almost half of all the attacks, making it the most hazardous part of the country.

The capital and the central provinces together accounted for three-quarters of all attacks, several of which took place on Sunday.

Overall, there was a fall in the number of bombings, but of the 25 which were reported they appeared to be larger than normal, killing 54 people and injuring 166.

A concerning rise in the number of shootings (particularly targeted shootings) left 17 people dead and 30 injured.

A notable rise in the number of indirect fire (rocket and mortar) attacks left at least eight people injured, three in Baghdad and five in Kurdistan.

AKE is also concerned about a rise in the number of bodies being recovered by the security forces. Nine people were found murdered this week, which is the highest figure recorded since June.

On 14 September the security forces found two unidentified bodies, one bearing gunshot wounds, the other bearing signs of torture adjacent to Abu Nuwas street in central Baghdad. Three more dead bodies (two men and a male teenager) bearing signs of torture were also found in Kadhimiyah, Salhiyah and one other undisclosed location in the capital on 16 September.

While these figures are much lower figure than those witnessed in 2007 and earlier, this is still a relatively high concentration in regards to recent trends.

Although the bodies were recovered in different districts these attacks may have been carried out by affiliated individuals, who may have been acting on religious, political or criminal motivations, selecting targets because of their perceived wealth, political affiliation, sexuality or mode of employment.

While world media is currently focussed on Afghanistan in light of its recent elections, conditions in Iraq are just as troubled. Almost seven months on from elections, a government has still not been formed. The political vacuum continues to provoke instability and uncertainty on the ground as a result.

24 weeks since the election

Ramadan Mubarak. This is my first blog post and I intend to continue providing updates on the developing situation in Iraq.

The following is a collation of my twitter updates posted on Sunday 7 March 2010 – election day in Iraq. This was 24 weeks ago today. That’s almost half a year and a government still hasn’t been formed.

I spent the day in the AKE Baghdad office surrounded by journalists covering the event. I had barely slept the previous night amid the noise of countless helicopters and aeroplanes flying relentlessly over the city.

Everyone was convinced that there would be terrorist attacks aimed at disrupting the polls and scaring voters into staying at home. The anticipation was electric, with people excited at the democratic potential, but also terrified at what might happen in the coming hours.

We were receiving reports of mortar fire and suicide bombers around the city, but in the days that followed the election these reports were denied by the authorities and the US military. The reported mortar attacks are now thought not to have occurred, and the loud bangs we heard throughout the day were largely caused by smaller explosive devices planted around the city. Still though, several people were killed that day.

Here are my hurried updates, some of which provide a glimpse into my experiences on one historical day in Iraq. I have put some of my afterthoughts in italics.


05:20
So today is the day. #iraqelection

I remember when I wrote my first update, it was getting light and I was sat at my desk with a cup of tea and piece of samoon bread. There were numerous helicopters flying overhead. I was tired having had no sleep, but bolt awake with the awareness of what might happen. Every minute I was expecting an explosion. I just knew they were coming that day and I was really anxious.

07:03
That’ll be a bomb then. #iraqelection

The first one hit after an hour and a half of frantic waiting. It felt like someone had slammed every door in the building at the same time and there was a feeling of vibration through my body. Not a big blast and not very close, but the first of several nonetheless.

07:10
Mortars Strike Baghdad Green Zone As Polls Open: Officials [#news #Iraq]

These were reports coming in from the television and people coming back in to the compound from patrols.

07:35
Another blast felt in #Baghdad, and several key roads closed to all traffic, even those with badges. #IraqElection

The building was shaking every couple of minutes now, and the security forces were stopping journalists from moving around certain parts of the city.

07:56
Blast reported in Karradah. Just felt another one here in city centre as well. #IraqElection.

08:36
Mortar fire in northern district of Ur reported. #IraqElection

09:21
Ministry of the Interior has reportedly warned of 50 suicide bombers in the capital. #iraqelection

When we heard this come through I was sceptical, of the number at least. I was quite willing to accept that suicide bombers were in the city today, ready to inflict masses of casualties, but not 50. Nonetheless, I told clients that the authorities were warning this from at least one local news source. I remember the look on the face of one of the Italian journalists. We just looked at each other eye-to-eye for a second and then I just laughed at the madness of the whole situation. Sometimes when things are grim you’ve got to try and see the funny side of things.

10:08
Reported flashpoints so far are IZ, Bayji, Ur, Karradah, Shaab, Qahirah, Ghazaliyah, Adhimiyah, Diyala, Ummal #IraqElection

After I listed the districts, I spoke to our local security specialists and give them the run down of the districts inlcuded. This was difficult and fairly upsetting. If one of them came from an affected area he would try and get in touch with his family, his wife, to see if they were alright. The mobile networks were all down of course, so no-one could find out anything. All we could do was carry on working and wait for more news.

10:24
Two suicide bombings reported in Baghdad already. #IraqElection

According to the authorities in later statements, this turned out to be an incorrect story. I think in the panic and confusion there must have been some false reporting. Nonetheless, at the time, it felt like things were reaching a fever pitch. The sun was rising and it was getting hot. It seemed like bombs were going off everywhere in the city.

10:38
Route restrictions and checkpoint searches are increasing following earlier attacks. #IraqElection

It was getting harder and harder to move around the city, although the heightened security measures were reassuring that the authorities were making efforts to deal with the situation. I felt, and still feel dreadful for the people who man the checkpoints in Iraq. They are on the frontline. Every day.

10:57
I am safe by the way. AKE is looking after me. #IraqElection

And they were. I once joked at an event in Aberdeen that it AKE could look after a teuchter like me in Baghdad than anyone could do business in the country, so long as they follow the proper procedures.

11:02
The curfew is to be lifted for saloon cars in the capital. More congestion, risk of car bombs. #IraqElection

By allowing certain cars to move around in the capital they were evidently trying to make it easier for people to get to the polling stations, but there was also the fear that this would allow terrorists to move large amounts of explosives around in the city as well.

11:33
At least 22 individual attacks in Baghdad confirmed by local television so far. #IraqElection

12:06
There have been more attacks in Baghdad this morning than in an average week. #IraqElection

13:29
We have not felt any blasts for some time now, but there may be more to come. #IraqElection

I think I must have grabbed lunch around now. I was exhausted at this time. I remember seeing colleagues returning from the polling stations, with their fingers blue from the ink. There was an air of jubilation and defiance around, definitely. I remember being worried that the ink would mark them out to terrorist groups, because some had threatened to go around cutting off people’s hands and fingers if they had been marked with ink. In the end, I didn’t receive any reports of this actually happening in the country.

15:46
A journalist has reportedly been shot and injured at an army checkpoint in the northeast of Baghdad. #IraqElection

There was very little information available on this story and I never received any more updates on it.

17:58
Voting may have ended but the threat groups who carried out the attacks today have not gone away. #IraqElection

There was a bit of a rush at the end of voting and some stations stayed open to accommodate the extra people. Some people missed the chance to vote altogether. This was a shame. I think some people were too scared to go earlier in the day when all the bombs were going off (can you blame them?) and then when they turned up to vote later the queues were too long.

18:08
A lot of people are probably alive today because of Iraqi security force efforts over recent days & bomb defusal efforts last night. #iraq10

I think the tag #Iraq10 was to say positive things about Iraq. I was very happy to see it, given that most of my twitter updates seem to include tragedy and grim reality. I realised that the authorities had made a lot of arrests over the preceding few days, and that the situation had been controlled, albeit within an Iraqi context. Things could have been much worse

However, after the day drew to a close, and the journalists gathered in our house after filing their reports and stories, the more seasoned commentators and long-term reporters generally agreed that Sunday, 7 March was only the beginning. Unless an acceptable government was formed sooner, rather than later, the outlook would worsen in the country. The expectations were hopeful, but everyone could see the potential for conditions deteriorating

Now it is almost six months later and a government still hasn’t been formed.

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