Eight Months since the Election

Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week. At least 98 people were killed and 484 injured in nationwide violence, which lies above the usual fatality range of 20 – 90.

Up to 60 separate bomb attacks left 81 people dead and 456 injured. Many took place in Shi’ah locations, with attacks recorded in all four of the major Shi’ah holy areas (including Kadhimiyah, Karbala, Najaf and Samarra) over the past week.

Small arms attacks left six people dead and six injured while a notable rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) also left five people dead and 22 injured.

The International/Green Zone was the primary target, although mortars landed in other nearby districts of downtown Baghdad (most probably because of poor targeting), while US military bases were also targeted with the tactic elsewhere in the central provinces.

The Christian community, particularly in Baghdad, is still reeling from an attack on a Chaldean church in Karradah district, and with al-Qaeda warnings against the group many are considering leaving the country.

The media sector is also concerned at the closure of Al-Baghdadiya television station by the authorities amid an investigation into their links to the attack. The bombers called the station to relay their demands and it has now been labelled a “mouthpiece for terrorists”.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has also criticised the findings of an inquiry by the Kurdish regional government which concluded that a freelance journalist was killed by insurgents. Sardasht Othman often censured the Kurdish authorities and his death highlighted allegations of governmental abuse of the media. HRW believe the inquiry is insufficient and could be a cover up.

Overall the capital saw the majority of the violence last week, but there was also an increase in the number of attacks taking place in the central provinces and Ta’mim province in the north.

In an unusual and worrying development there was one suicide attack reported over the week – not in the more hostile central provinces, but on the edge of Arbil city in Iraqi Kurdistan. Fortunately the professional Kurdish security forces were able to kill the bomber before he detonated his vehicle laden with explosives but the incident highlights the fact that even normally secure KRG territory is not entirely immune from terrorism.

At the time of writing Arbil is in the news for another major reason. Senior Iraqi politicians have gathered in the city to discuss the protracted government-formation process. Speculation is that a major announcement is to be made in the coming hours and days. It has now been over eight months since elections were held in the country.

If a government is formed armed supporters of political parties deemed to have lost out in the process may initiate attacks on their political rivals and attempt to destabilise what will likely be a weak coalition government.

Note that cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military will remain a possibility in the Qandil Mountains or KRG territory, although the PKK has distanced itself from a recent terrorist attack in Istanbul (now claimed by another Kurdish group) and it has extended its ceasefire until 2011.

Travellers are also advised to note that flight options may be constrained over the coming week as pilgrims travel to Saudi Arabia to participate in the Hajj.

Almost 200 days since the Iraq elections

Wednesday will mark 200 days since national elections were held in Iraq.

Terrorists are evidently still intent on disrupting the political process, particularly as the country remains without a government.

Levels of violence rose last week with militant activity appearing to have returned to pre-Ramadan levels.

At least 88 people were killed and 218 injured countrywide.

Baghdad accounted for almost half of all the attacks, making it the most hazardous part of the country.

The capital and the central provinces together accounted for three-quarters of all attacks, several of which took place on Sunday.

Overall, there was a fall in the number of bombings, but of the 25 which were reported they appeared to be larger than normal, killing 54 people and injuring 166.

A concerning rise in the number of shootings (particularly targeted shootings) left 17 people dead and 30 injured.

A notable rise in the number of indirect fire (rocket and mortar) attacks left at least eight people injured, three in Baghdad and five in Kurdistan.

AKE is also concerned about a rise in the number of bodies being recovered by the security forces. Nine people were found murdered this week, which is the highest figure recorded since June.

On 14 September the security forces found two unidentified bodies, one bearing gunshot wounds, the other bearing signs of torture adjacent to Abu Nuwas street in central Baghdad. Three more dead bodies (two men and a male teenager) bearing signs of torture were also found in Kadhimiyah, Salhiyah and one other undisclosed location in the capital on 16 September.

While these figures are much lower figure than those witnessed in 2007 and earlier, this is still a relatively high concentration in regards to recent trends.

Although the bodies were recovered in different districts these attacks may have been carried out by affiliated individuals, who may have been acting on religious, political or criminal motivations, selecting targets because of their perceived wealth, political affiliation, sexuality or mode of employment.

While world media is currently focussed on Afghanistan in light of its recent elections, conditions in Iraq are just as troubled. Almost seven months on from elections, a government has still not been formed. The political vacuum continues to provoke instability and uncertainty on the ground as a result.