Eight Months since the Election

Levels of violence rose in Iraq over the past week. At least 98 people were killed and 484 injured in nationwide violence, which lies above the usual fatality range of 20 – 90.

Up to 60 separate bomb attacks left 81 people dead and 456 injured. Many took place in Shi’ah locations, with attacks recorded in all four of the major Shi’ah holy areas (including Kadhimiyah, Karbala, Najaf and Samarra) over the past week.

Small arms attacks left six people dead and six injured while a notable rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) also left five people dead and 22 injured.

The International/Green Zone was the primary target, although mortars landed in other nearby districts of downtown Baghdad (most probably because of poor targeting), while US military bases were also targeted with the tactic elsewhere in the central provinces.

The Christian community, particularly in Baghdad, is still reeling from an attack on a Chaldean church in Karradah district, and with al-Qaeda warnings against the group many are considering leaving the country.

The media sector is also concerned at the closure of Al-Baghdadiya television station by the authorities amid an investigation into their links to the attack. The bombers called the station to relay their demands and it has now been labelled a “mouthpiece for terrorists”.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has also criticised the findings of an inquiry by the Kurdish regional government which concluded that a freelance journalist was killed by insurgents. Sardasht Othman often censured the Kurdish authorities and his death highlighted allegations of governmental abuse of the media. HRW believe the inquiry is insufficient and could be a cover up.

Overall the capital saw the majority of the violence last week, but there was also an increase in the number of attacks taking place in the central provinces and Ta’mim province in the north.

In an unusual and worrying development there was one suicide attack reported over the week – not in the more hostile central provinces, but on the edge of Arbil city in Iraqi Kurdistan. Fortunately the professional Kurdish security forces were able to kill the bomber before he detonated his vehicle laden with explosives but the incident highlights the fact that even normally secure KRG territory is not entirely immune from terrorism.

At the time of writing Arbil is in the news for another major reason. Senior Iraqi politicians have gathered in the city to discuss the protracted government-formation process. Speculation is that a major announcement is to be made in the coming hours and days. It has now been over eight months since elections were held in the country.

If a government is formed armed supporters of political parties deemed to have lost out in the process may initiate attacks on their political rivals and attempt to destabilise what will likely be a weak coalition government.

Note that cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military will remain a possibility in the Qandil Mountains or KRG territory, although the PKK has distanced itself from a recent terrorist attack in Istanbul (now claimed by another Kurdish group) and it has extended its ceasefire until 2011.

Travellers are also advised to note that flight options may be constrained over the coming week as pilgrims travel to Saudi Arabia to participate in the Hajj.

Spate of terrorist attacks

The flashpoints reported in a string of terrorist attacks in Iraq today include the following towns and areas so far:

Fallujah (Anbar) Ramadi (Anbar) Allawi (Baghdad) Qahirah (Baghdad) Basrah (Basrah) Buhriz (Diyala) Muqdadiyah (Diyala) Karbala (Karbala) Mosul (Ninawa) Tal Afar (Ninawa) Dujayl (Salah ad-Din) Tikrit (Salah ad-Din) Kirkuk (Ta’mim) Kut (Wassit)

Open sources are stating that 48 people have been killed and 286 injured in the violence.

The timing of the attacks would suggest co-ordination by the perpetrators, which would in turn indicate the involvement of a major group such as the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite the arrest and killing of key senior figures in the organisation earlier this year it does not appear deterred.

The number of security incidents taking place in the country. Yesterday AKE revised upwards the risk rating for Baghdad on our intelligence website Global Intake (www.globalintake.com).

The increase may be due to a combination of events.

* Terrorists have high intent to conduct attacks in order to discredit the US as it ends its combat missions in the country.

* Ramadan has traditionally been a time of higher than normal tensions, although conditions were fairly quiet over the last two years.

* The government still has not been formed, nearly six months after the polls, leaving a political vacuum which militant groups look increasingly intent on taking advantage of.

With the Islamic State of Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks on judges in the capital (as documented in AKE’s weekly Iraq report on Monday), we may hear a similar claim of responsibility from the group for these latest terrorist attacks in the coming hours and days. We are far less likely to hear that a government has been formed.