29 Weeks Since the Elections

The map above shows the frequency of attacks taking place in Iraq between April and June of this year on a district level in Iraq.

Over the coming weeks I will be working out what the frequency of attacks has been between July and September. This will answer the question, not only of whether or not conditions have worsened or improved in Iraq since the elections, but in precisely which districts conditions have improved and worsened.

Until I complete this review, you are welcome to participate in my temporary poll “have conditions worsened in #Iraq since the elections?” http://poll.fm/29vqc

Last week the number of attacks taking place in Iraq rose, but conversely the number of people actually killed in attacks fell.

Most of the bombs and mortars initiated by militants seemed to cause minimal casualties.

In total, at least 28 fatalities were documented, which is towards the lower range of 20-90 normally recorded in an average week.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad and Mosul and in an unusual development, last week saw more attacks in the south of the country than in the central provinces.

Mostly small bombings countrywide left 12 people dead and 72 injured, while a lower than usual number of small arms attacks left 11 people dead and one injured.

Nonetheless, these shootings were largely targeted (particularly implicating civil employees and political figures in the capital) and should not be taken lightly. These assassinations appear to be a more regular occurrence at present.

The week also saw a major rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), which were concentrated on the International/Green Zone.

There were two suicide attacks, one in Fallujah district and one in Mosul, together leaving four people dead (not including the bombers) and five people injured.

An unusually high number of 16 people were also kidnapped, including 14 people seized in a bus in Maysan province, but all were released unharmed in police operations.

The Oil Ministry reported that Iraq’s oil exports were slightly lower than usual in August due to acts of sabotage, technical problems and weather issues.

A nationwide census is to be held on 24 October. If this goes ahead (several have been cancelled and delayed in the past) it could stoke violence in the ethnically mixed provinces of Ta’mim, Ninawa and Diyala.

Cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military are likely to continue in the Qandil Mountains as the two countries pursue Kurdish rebels responsible for recent attacks in their territory.

It has been almost seven months since national elections were held, and a new government is not expected for several more weeks at least.

The accompanying political vacuum will continue to act as a destabilising force, and terrorists will continue in their attempts to disrupt the democratic process.

26 Weeks since the Election

Tomorrow is 7 September. The date will mark six months since Iraq held its elections. A government still has not been formed.

With the exception of Baghdad levels of violence fell in Iraq last week and the total number of incidents returned to levels seen before the holy month of Ramadan began.

At least 28 people were killed, which is a 10-week low, and towards the lower end of the 20 to 90 range usually recorded.

Suicide bombings left 12 people dead and 36 injured, non-suicide bombings left 11 people dead and 64 injured while small arms attacks left four people dead and one injured. At least one body was also found abandoned in the north.

More positively, however, was a police operation which saw the release of two kidnap victims held in a village south of Mosul.

A series of mortar attacks also hit the International/Green Zone and an Iraqi military base in Maysan province, although no injuries were reported.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) put forward vice-president Adel Abdul-Mahdi as their candidate to be Iraq’s next prime minister while political figures from the province of Basrah re-iterated their desire for greater political autonomy. Even once the government is formed a raft of political debates will still have to be resolved.