30 weeks since the election

Levels of violence appear to be rising in Baghdad, with a spate of bombings earlier today.

The city also accounted for almost half of all countrywide attacks reported in September.

From a political perspective, it has been almost seven months since Iraq held its elections but the lethargic impasse gained momentum in recent days after the Iraqi National Alliance (a Shi’ah religious bloc) agreed to nominate Nuri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.

Al-Maliki now stands closer to forming a parliamentary majority, but concern has been expressed at his consolidation of power at the expense of Sunni political inclusion.

In terms of violence, the number of attacks fell in Iraq over the past week, with 20 people killed (a figure towards the lower end of the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities).

A rise in the number of bomb attacks left eight people dead and 78 injured.

At the time of writing, a television cameraman is also reported to have been killed in a sticky bomb explosion in Anbar province.

Sticky bomb attacks have risen over the past week, particularly in the capital and the districts surrounding it.

Small arms attacks left 12 people dead and six injured (several involved the use of silencers).

There was an overall decrease in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) which left three people injured.

However, the most significant attack of the week was arguably a suicide bombing in the normally quiet province of Sulaymaniyah (in Iraqi Kurdistan) which left three Peshmerga fighters injured.

AKE’s quarterly statistics are to be published in a report later this week, but findings suggest that on average between two to three Iraqis were abducted per week over the past three months.

This is a worrying increase from the previous quarter and would suggest that criminals may increasingly believe that they will enjoy impunity if the political situation deteriorates.

More positively, however, a kidnapped child was freed from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province during the week.

In another positive development the oil ministry announced the country’s new proven oil figures, which surpass those of Iran and put Iraq behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela only.

AKE has compiled a graph showing the number of attacks taking place in Iraq in September according to province.

Baghdad has been by far the most hazardous part of the country, accounting for almost half of all the month’s violence.

29 Weeks Since the Elections

The map above shows the frequency of attacks taking place in Iraq between April and June of this year on a district level in Iraq.

Over the coming weeks I will be working out what the frequency of attacks has been between July and September. This will answer the question, not only of whether or not conditions have worsened or improved in Iraq since the elections, but in precisely which districts conditions have improved and worsened.

Until I complete this review, you are welcome to participate in my temporary poll “have conditions worsened in #Iraq since the elections?” http://poll.fm/29vqc

Last week the number of attacks taking place in Iraq rose, but conversely the number of people actually killed in attacks fell.

Most of the bombs and mortars initiated by militants seemed to cause minimal casualties.

In total, at least 28 fatalities were documented, which is towards the lower range of 20-90 normally recorded in an average week.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad and Mosul and in an unusual development, last week saw more attacks in the south of the country than in the central provinces.

Mostly small bombings countrywide left 12 people dead and 72 injured, while a lower than usual number of small arms attacks left 11 people dead and one injured.

Nonetheless, these shootings were largely targeted (particularly implicating civil employees and political figures in the capital) and should not be taken lightly. These assassinations appear to be a more regular occurrence at present.

The week also saw a major rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), which were concentrated on the International/Green Zone.

There were two suicide attacks, one in Fallujah district and one in Mosul, together leaving four people dead (not including the bombers) and five people injured.

An unusually high number of 16 people were also kidnapped, including 14 people seized in a bus in Maysan province, but all were released unharmed in police operations.

The Oil Ministry reported that Iraq’s oil exports were slightly lower than usual in August due to acts of sabotage, technical problems and weather issues.

A nationwide census is to be held on 24 October. If this goes ahead (several have been cancelled and delayed in the past) it could stoke violence in the ethnically mixed provinces of Ta’mim, Ninawa and Diyala.

Cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military are likely to continue in the Qandil Mountains as the two countries pursue Kurdish rebels responsible for recent attacks in their territory.

It has been almost seven months since national elections were held, and a new government is not expected for several more weeks at least.

The accompanying political vacuum will continue to act as a destabilising force, and terrorists will continue in their attempts to disrupt the democratic process.

Quiet end to Ramadan

Levels of violence rose slightly in Iraq over the past week with at least 36 people killed and 124 injured in nationwide attacks.

Bomb attacks left 17 people dead and 103 injured, a rise in small arms attacks left 13 people dead and 17 injured while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left four people injured.

There were no suicide attacks reported in the last week of Ramadan.

Violence was most concentred in Mosul and Baghdad although there was a rise in activity in the provinces of Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Two journalists were killed in separate incidents, one in Baghdad and one in Mosul, while two kidnap victims were freed by the police in an operation, also in Mosul.

In general the past fortnight has been quieter than normal, with heightened security measures imposed by the authorities whilst the Muslim population celebrated ‘Eid ul-Fitr. Conditions were particularly quiet over the ‘Eid weekend.

The government-formation process may pick up speed over the coming weeks now that the holy month of Ramadan has passed, but it could still take many weeks to complete.

In a positive development, Pastor Terry Jones of a small church in Florida decided against burning Qur’ans on the anniversary of the September 11th attacks.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged restraint against those intent on persecuting the Iraqi Christian community in response to the event, and with security measures increased around churches at the weekend there were no attacks recorded against Christians in the country.

Last official day before Operation New Dawn in Iraq

With US combat operations officially set to end in Iraq, the number of attacks has continued to rise. Last week at least 94 people were killed and 361 injured in attacks scattered across the country.

Suicide bombings left 14 people dead and 47 injured, non-suicide bombings left 50 people dead and 296 injured, small arms attacks left 26 dead and 11 injured, while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and seven injured. Three more bodies were recovered while at least one person was kidnapped (in Kirkuk).

The security forces are currently on a heightened state of alert, but their capabilities are not sufficient enough to prevent ongoing terrorist attacks. Given the spread of violence over the past seven days, attacks should be considered a possibility across the country, although incidents remain most concentrated in Baghdad, eastern Anbar province, western Diyala province and around the northern city of Mosul.

Increase in Iraq Violence

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week, a period which saw US combat operations draw to a close in the country.

At least 98 people were killed and 230 injured in nationwide violence, which is above the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities and part of what appears to be a sustained rise in terrorist activity over the past month.

The most devastating attack took place in central Baghdad, where a suicide bomber targeted army recruits in Bab al-Muadham district, killing dozens and injuring up to 130. Otherwise, non-suicide bombings left 22 people dead and 92 injured.

In last week’s Iraq report AKE warned of the possible use of firearms with silencers for targeted killings in the capital. This warning has been realised with several ministry employees, judges, police officers and even a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) shot dead in apparently targeted close quarter assassinations. Countrywide, this worrying rise in small arms attacks left 24 people dead and seven injured.

The capital has also seen a rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), most of which targeted the International/Green Zone, although several fell short of this target, causing injuries in surrounding residential districts.

More positively, the security forces managed to rescue a kidnapped civilian in Diyala province while there were no reported incidents of violence in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG territory).

24 weeks since the election

Ramadan Mubarak. This is my first blog post and I intend to continue providing updates on the developing situation in Iraq.

The following is a collation of my twitter updates posted on Sunday 7 March 2010 – election day in Iraq. This was 24 weeks ago today. That’s almost half a year and a government still hasn’t been formed.

I spent the day in the AKE Baghdad office surrounded by journalists covering the event. I had barely slept the previous night amid the noise of countless helicopters and aeroplanes flying relentlessly over the city.

Everyone was convinced that there would be terrorist attacks aimed at disrupting the polls and scaring voters into staying at home. The anticipation was electric, with people excited at the democratic potential, but also terrified at what might happen in the coming hours.

We were receiving reports of mortar fire and suicide bombers around the city, but in the days that followed the election these reports were denied by the authorities and the US military. The reported mortar attacks are now thought not to have occurred, and the loud bangs we heard throughout the day were largely caused by smaller explosive devices planted around the city. Still though, several people were killed that day.

Here are my hurried updates, some of which provide a glimpse into my experiences on one historical day in Iraq. I have put some of my afterthoughts in italics.

05:20
So today is the day. #iraqelection

I remember when I wrote my first update, it was getting light and I was sat at my desk with a cup of tea and piece of samoon bread. There were numerous helicopters flying overhead. I was tired having had no sleep, but bolt awake with the awareness of what might happen. Every minute I was expecting an explosion. I just knew they were coming that day and I was really anxious.

07:03
That’ll be a bomb then. #iraqelection

The first one hit after an hour and a half of frantic waiting. It felt like someone had slammed every door in the building at the same time and there was a feeling of vibration through my body. Not a big blast and not very close, but the first of several nonetheless.

07:10
Mortars Strike Baghdad Green Zone As Polls Open: Officials [#news #Iraq]

These were reports coming in from the television and people coming back in to the compound from patrols.

07:35
Another blast felt in #Baghdad, and several key roads closed to all traffic, even those with badges. #IraqElection

The building was shaking every couple of minutes now, and the security forces were stopping journalists from moving around certain parts of the city.

07:56
Blast reported in Karradah. Just felt another one here in city centre as well. #IraqElection.

08:36
Mortar fire in northern district of Ur reported. #IraqElection

09:21
Ministry of the Interior has reportedly warned of 50 suicide bombers in the capital. #iraqelection

When we heard this come through I was sceptical, of the number at least. I was quite willing to accept that suicide bombers were in the city today, ready to inflict masses of casualties, but not 50. Nonetheless, I told clients that the authorities were warning this from at least one local news source. I remember the look on the face of one of the Italian journalists. We just looked at each other eye-to-eye for a second and then I just laughed at the madness of the whole situation. Sometimes when things are grim you’ve got to try and see the funny side of things.

10:08
Reported flashpoints so far are IZ, Bayji, Ur, Karradah, Shaab, Qahirah, Ghazaliyah, Adhimiyah, Diyala, Ummal #IraqElection

After I listed the districts, I spoke to our local security specialists and give them the run down of the districts inlcuded. This was difficult and fairly upsetting. If one of them came from an affected area he would try and get in touch with his family, his wife, to see if they were alright. The mobile networks were all down of course, so no-one could find out anything. All we could do was carry on working and wait for more news.

10:24
Two suicide bombings reported in Baghdad already. #IraqElection

According to the authorities in later statements, this turned out to be an incorrect story. I think in the panic and confusion there must have been some false reporting. Nonetheless, at the time, it felt like things were reaching a fever pitch. The sun was rising and it was getting hot. It seemed like bombs were going off everywhere in the city.

10:38
Route restrictions and checkpoint searches are increasing following earlier attacks. #IraqElection

It was getting harder and harder to move around the city, although the heightened security measures were reassuring that the authorities were making efforts to deal with the situation. I felt, and still feel dreadful for the people who man the checkpoints in Iraq. They are on the frontline. Every day.

10:57
I am safe by the way. AKE is looking after me. #IraqElection

And they were. I once joked at an event in Aberdeen that it AKE could look after a teuchter like me in Baghdad than anyone could do business in the country, so long as they follow the proper procedures.

11:02
The curfew is to be lifted for saloon cars in the capital. More congestion, risk of car bombs. #IraqElection

By allowing certain cars to move around in the capital they were evidently trying to make it easier for people to get to the polling stations, but there was also the fear that this would allow terrorists to move large amounts of explosives around in the city as well.

11:33
At least 22 individual attacks in Baghdad confirmed by local television so far. #IraqElection

12:06
There have been more attacks in Baghdad this morning than in an average week. #IraqElection

13:29
We have not felt any blasts for some time now, but there may be more to come. #IraqElection

I think I must have grabbed lunch around now. I was exhausted at this time. I remember seeing colleagues returning from the polling stations, with their fingers blue from the ink. There was an air of jubilation and defiance around, definitely. I remember being worried that the ink would mark them out to terrorist groups, because some had threatened to go around cutting off people’s hands and fingers if they had been marked with ink. In the end, I didn’t receive any reports of this actually happening in the country.

15:46
A journalist has reportedly been shot and injured at an army checkpoint in the northeast of Baghdad. #IraqElection

There was very little information available on this story and I never received any more updates on it.

17:58
Voting may have ended but the threat groups who carried out the attacks today have not gone away. #IraqElection

There was a bit of a rush at the end of voting and some stations stayed open to accommodate the extra people. Some people missed the chance to vote altogether. This was a shame. I think some people were too scared to go earlier in the day when all the bombs were going off (can you blame them?) and then when they turned up to vote later the queues were too long.

18:08
A lot of people are probably alive today because of Iraqi security force efforts over recent days & bomb defusal efforts last night. #iraq10

I think the tag #Iraq10 was to say positive things about Iraq. I was very happy to see it, given that most of my twitter updates seem to include tragedy and grim reality. I realised that the authorities had made a lot of arrests over the preceding few days, and that the situation had been controlled, albeit within an Iraqi context. Things could have been much worse

However, after the day drew to a close, and the journalists gathered in our house after filing their reports and stories, the more seasoned commentators and long-term reporters generally agreed that Sunday, 7 March was only the beginning. Unless an acceptable government was formed sooner, rather than later, the outlook would worsen in the country. The expectations were hopeful, but everyone could see the potential for conditions deteriorating

Now it is almost six months later and a government still hasn’t been formed.