30 weeks since the election

Levels of violence appear to be rising in Baghdad, with a spate of bombings earlier today.

The city also accounted for almost half of all countrywide attacks reported in September.

From a political perspective, it has been almost seven months since Iraq held its elections but the lethargic impasse gained momentum in recent days after the Iraqi National Alliance (a Shi’ah religious bloc) agreed to nominate Nuri al-Maliki as its candidate for prime minister.

Al-Maliki now stands closer to forming a parliamentary majority, but concern has been expressed at his consolidation of power at the expense of Sunni political inclusion.

In terms of violence, the number of attacks fell in Iraq over the past week, with 20 people killed (a figure towards the lower end of the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities).

A rise in the number of bomb attacks left eight people dead and 78 injured.

At the time of writing, a television cameraman is also reported to have been killed in a sticky bomb explosion in Anbar province.

Sticky bomb attacks have risen over the past week, particularly in the capital and the districts surrounding it.

Small arms attacks left 12 people dead and six injured (several involved the use of silencers).

There was an overall decrease in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars) which left three people injured.

However, the most significant attack of the week was arguably a suicide bombing in the normally quiet province of Sulaymaniyah (in Iraqi Kurdistan) which left three Peshmerga fighters injured.

AKE’s quarterly statistics are to be published in a report later this week, but findings suggest that on average between two to three Iraqis were abducted per week over the past three months.

This is a worrying increase from the previous quarter and would suggest that criminals may increasingly believe that they will enjoy impunity if the political situation deteriorates.

More positively, however, a kidnapped child was freed from captivity in a police operation in Dhi Qar province during the week.

In another positive development the oil ministry announced the country’s new proven oil figures, which surpass those of Iran and put Iraq behind Saudi Arabia and Venezuela only.

AKE has compiled a graph showing the number of attacks taking place in Iraq in September according to province.

Baghdad has been by far the most hazardous part of the country, accounting for almost half of all the month’s violence.

29 Weeks Since the Elections

The map above shows the frequency of attacks taking place in Iraq between April and June of this year on a district level in Iraq.

Over the coming weeks I will be working out what the frequency of attacks has been between July and September. This will answer the question, not only of whether or not conditions have worsened or improved in Iraq since the elections, but in precisely which districts conditions have improved and worsened.

Until I complete this review, you are welcome to participate in my temporary poll “have conditions worsened in #Iraq since the elections?” http://poll.fm/29vqc

Last week the number of attacks taking place in Iraq rose, but conversely the number of people actually killed in attacks fell.

Most of the bombs and mortars initiated by militants seemed to cause minimal casualties.

In total, at least 28 fatalities were documented, which is towards the lower range of 20-90 normally recorded in an average week.

Violence was concentrated in Baghdad and Mosul and in an unusual development, last week saw more attacks in the south of the country than in the central provinces.

Mostly small bombings countrywide left 12 people dead and 72 injured, while a lower than usual number of small arms attacks left 11 people dead and one injured.

Nonetheless, these shootings were largely targeted (particularly implicating civil employees and political figures in the capital) and should not be taken lightly. These assassinations appear to be a more regular occurrence at present.

The week also saw a major rise in the number of indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), which were concentrated on the International/Green Zone.

There were two suicide attacks, one in Fallujah district and one in Mosul, together leaving four people dead (not including the bombers) and five people injured.

An unusually high number of 16 people were also kidnapped, including 14 people seized in a bus in Maysan province, but all were released unharmed in police operations.

The Oil Ministry reported that Iraq’s oil exports were slightly lower than usual in August due to acts of sabotage, technical problems and weather issues.

A nationwide census is to be held on 24 October. If this goes ahead (several have been cancelled and delayed in the past) it could stoke violence in the ethnically mixed provinces of Ta’mim, Ninawa and Diyala.

Cross-border operations by the Turkish and Iranian military are likely to continue in the Qandil Mountains as the two countries pursue Kurdish rebels responsible for recent attacks in their territory.

It has been almost seven months since national elections were held, and a new government is not expected for several more weeks at least.

The accompanying political vacuum will continue to act as a destabilising force, and terrorists will continue in their attempts to disrupt the democratic process.

Quiet end to Ramadan

Levels of violence rose slightly in Iraq over the past week with at least 36 people killed and 124 injured in nationwide attacks.

Bomb attacks left 17 people dead and 103 injured, a rise in small arms attacks left 13 people dead and 17 injured while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left four people injured.

There were no suicide attacks reported in the last week of Ramadan.

Violence was most concentred in Mosul and Baghdad although there was a rise in activity in the provinces of Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Two journalists were killed in separate incidents, one in Baghdad and one in Mosul, while two kidnap victims were freed by the police in an operation, also in Mosul.

In general the past fortnight has been quieter than normal, with heightened security measures imposed by the authorities whilst the Muslim population celebrated ‘Eid ul-Fitr. Conditions were particularly quiet over the ‘Eid weekend.

The government-formation process may pick up speed over the coming weeks now that the holy month of Ramadan has passed, but it could still take many weeks to complete.

In a positive development, Pastor Terry Jones of a small church in Florida decided against burning Qur’ans on the anniversary of the September 11th attacks.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged restraint against those intent on persecuting the Iraqi Christian community in response to the event, and with security measures increased around churches at the weekend there were no attacks recorded against Christians in the country.

Last official day before Operation New Dawn in Iraq

With US combat operations officially set to end in Iraq, the number of attacks has continued to rise. Last week at least 94 people were killed and 361 injured in attacks scattered across the country.

Suicide bombings left 14 people dead and 47 injured, non-suicide bombings left 50 people dead and 296 injured, small arms attacks left 26 dead and 11 injured, while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left one person dead and seven injured. Three more bodies were recovered while at least one person was kidnapped (in Kirkuk).

The security forces are currently on a heightened state of alert, but their capabilities are not sufficient enough to prevent ongoing terrorist attacks. Given the spread of violence over the past seven days, attacks should be considered a possibility across the country, although incidents remain most concentrated in Baghdad, eastern Anbar province, western Diyala province and around the northern city of Mosul.

Increase in Iraq Violence

Levels of violence rose in Iraq last week, a period which saw US combat operations draw to a close in the country.

At least 98 people were killed and 230 injured in nationwide violence, which is above the usual range of 20 to 90 fatalities and part of what appears to be a sustained rise in terrorist activity over the past month.

The most devastating attack took place in central Baghdad, where a suicide bomber targeted army recruits in Bab al-Muadham district, killing dozens and injuring up to 130. Otherwise, non-suicide bombings left 22 people dead and 92 injured.

In last week’s Iraq report AKE warned of the possible use of firearms with silencers for targeted killings in the capital. This warning has been realised with several ministry employees, judges, police officers and even a member of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) shot dead in apparently targeted close quarter assassinations. Countrywide, this worrying rise in small arms attacks left 24 people dead and seven injured.

The capital has also seen a rise in indirect fire attacks (rockets and mortars), most of which targeted the International/Green Zone, although several fell short of this target, causing injuries in surrounding residential districts.

More positively, the security forces managed to rescue a kidnapped civilian in Diyala province while there were no reported incidents of violence in Iraqi Kurdistan (KRG territory).