Weekly Podcast

This is the first of my Iraq weekly security podcasts.

Quiet end to Ramadan

Levels of violence rose slightly in Iraq over the past week with at least 36 people killed and 124 injured in nationwide attacks.

Bomb attacks left 17 people dead and 103 injured, a rise in small arms attacks left 13 people dead and 17 injured while indirect fire (rockets and mortars) left four people injured.

There were no suicide attacks reported in the last week of Ramadan.

Violence was most concentred in Mosul and Baghdad although there was a rise in activity in the provinces of Diyala and Salah ad-Din.

Two journalists were killed in separate incidents, one in Baghdad and one in Mosul, while two kidnap victims were freed by the police in an operation, also in Mosul.

In general the past fortnight has been quieter than normal, with heightened security measures imposed by the authorities whilst the Muslim population celebrated ‘Eid ul-Fitr. Conditions were particularly quiet over the ‘Eid weekend.

The government-formation process may pick up speed over the coming weeks now that the holy month of Ramadan has passed, but it could still take many weeks to complete.

In a positive development, Pastor Terry Jones of a small church in Florida decided against burning Qur’ans on the anniversary of the September 11th attacks.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged restraint against those intent on persecuting the Iraqi Christian community in response to the event, and with security measures increased around churches at the weekend there were no attacks recorded against Christians in the country.

Spate of terrorist attacks

The flashpoints reported in a string of terrorist attacks in Iraq today include the following towns and areas so far:

Fallujah (Anbar) Ramadi (Anbar) Allawi (Baghdad) Qahirah (Baghdad) Basrah (Basrah) Buhriz (Diyala) Muqdadiyah (Diyala) Karbala (Karbala) Mosul (Ninawa) Tal Afar (Ninawa) Dujayl (Salah ad-Din) Tikrit (Salah ad-Din) Kirkuk (Ta’mim) Kut (Wassit)

Open sources are stating that 48 people have been killed and 286 injured in the violence.

The timing of the attacks would suggest co-ordination by the perpetrators, which would in turn indicate the involvement of a major group such as the Islamic State of Iraq. Despite the arrest and killing of key senior figures in the organisation earlier this year it does not appear deterred.

The number of security incidents taking place in the country. Yesterday AKE revised upwards the risk rating for Baghdad on our intelligence website Global Intake (www.globalintake.com).

The increase may be due to a combination of events.

* Terrorists have high intent to conduct attacks in order to discredit the US as it ends its combat missions in the country.

* Ramadan has traditionally been a time of higher than normal tensions, although conditions were fairly quiet over the last two years.

* The government still has not been formed, nearly six months after the polls, leaving a political vacuum which militant groups look increasingly intent on taking advantage of.

With the Islamic State of Iraq claiming responsibility for attacks on judges in the capital (as documented in AKE’s weekly Iraq report on Monday), we may hear a similar claim of responsibility from the group for these latest terrorist attacks in the coming hours and days. We are far less likely to hear that a government has been formed.